Fine margins

What determines success or failure?

We suddenly win three in a row, and are now the form team in the league, unbelievable as that may sound. What changed?  A book with an insider's view on this season would be a fascinating read.  There would be so many great lessons about leadership, about accountability, about how to build a team etc.  Stories which would help illuminate any leadership course.  Which is why Alex Ferguson was invited to lecture at Harvard or somewhere.

Arteta took over a team in a no-win situation.  Well, not really no win as in not winning any games heh.  He inherited a team with a lot of baggage that will take time to resolve, but of course fans aren't so patient, especially the more rabid ones - who are naturally also the more vocal ones. Of course when he was hired, we don't know what his brief was, and what targets he was given in the short, medium and long term. Hopefully there were such goals because at least it would signify that the owners knew the scale of the problems facing their club.

Arteta could not get the team winning enough to qualify for Europe again (we finished 8th) but he managed to paper over the cracks by winning the FA Cup against the odds.  We beat City and Chelsea (payback for Baku) and that gave everyone a lot of wild enthusiasm for the new season.  Which is a great lesson in understanding goals and objectives.  Which is not to get sidetracked or distracted by achievements which weren't part of the original targets.  It's nice to get a trophy (or two if you count the Community Shield), and there are important data points to be gleaned from that, e.g. that Arteta is able to get more out of the same (mostly) team than Emery did which gives us some comfort that we did not appoint a dud.

Which is another lesson (or potential lesson).  When you face a difficult decision in wanting someone to effect change, do you go with someone you feel may understand what you are trying to do, even if he has no real track record?  Or do you go with a safe pair of hands?   The obvious answer is you look for someone who understands what you (as in the owner) want.  Playing safe was one of the root causes, so in my mind, not the way to go.

So recognising that change is needed, and understanding that it takes time is an important first step or realisation.  Equally important however, is recognising that there is a tradeoff in delay. The pain continues (not just to those directly affected) and makes the transition down the road even harder.

What is hardest however is recognising that change is needed even when things 'appear' to be going well.  Which brings me back to the opening question.  What does success look like?  Decline comes faster, or is disguised better when you don't define success correctly.  Were we lulled into complacency by Wenger?  Especially his assertion that top 4 is a trophy?  I think the owners certainly were.  The money was rolling in, we qualified for the Champions League every year (albeit sometimes under rather fortunate circumstances) and life was good.

Except that it wasn't.

So in hindsight, that top 4 target was a massive red flag though many were seduced by the charm of Wenger at the time, and bought into it.  Don't get me wrong.  I don't mean that we should be winning the league every year.  But we were certainly getting less and less competitive every year - the year that Leicester won, we came 2nd but that was an anomaly (though it bought Wenger more time).  We should have been assessed each season by how much progress we were making vis-a-vis other teams, in particular against the big 6.  Another massive red flag in recent years?  Not being able to beat these top teams.

The bar was lowered to a simplistic outcome of a top 4 finish without considering other factors, and that produced the inertia that allowed Wenger to continue until it was too late.  So in the final analysis, the blame has to be laid at the door of the owners who basically abdicated their responsibilities.  They talked a good game about competing with the likes of Bayern Munich in Europe but we are even further from that today.