What does progress look like? Liverpool 3 Arsenal 1

"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog" (Mark Twain)  

We won our last two games against them, so it's two steps forward and one back?  How much better are we since Arteta took over?  It would be nonsensical to argue we are not better.  But I suspect you get a wide range of opinions about how much we have done so. Losing is no disgrace, given where we are compared to Liverpool, and we knew the last two results were outliers.  So we have to look for signs or indicators of progress in the aftermath of what was always likely to happen.

The basic questions we have to ask are, "Where do we want to be?", "Where are we now?", "How well are we doing?", "What do we need to do?"  Pretty much the standard things we need to think about to achieve anything meaningful.

Where we want to be is about hope. The line between hope and entitlement is often thin or blurred. What makes the distinction is a sense of reality.  Making top 4 would be a success.  We should not expect to win anything at this stage. (Just as in the more important aspects of life, having realistic goals are important.  I don't mean you should not dream big, but think about it in a realistic and systematic way.)

Where we are now is roughly where we finished last season.  The table does not lie over a season.  The FA Cup and Community Shield are outliers, a very small sample size compared to 38 games.  The road ahead is long and we have something to build on, but let's not get carried away. (Nothing happens without a plan, and without graft.  Also, you can fool yourself, and others, for a while but you eventually get found out.  We got found out in this game.)

How well are we doing?  As I said, you could get a whole range of views.  If we look at the stats from the league game last season where we won 2-1 (below), and compare them with those from this game (at the top of the page), you could convince yourself that there's been improvement - aside from the score that is.  But even the ultimate statistic like the scoreline can be misleading.  There was no way we should have won the earlier game.  Of course if you don't care about anything except your club winning, this is irrelevant - not to mention that you are likely to be miserable more often than not.

Which is my rather long-winded way of saying that there is a better and more sane way to follow football.  It is about viewing the club's fortunes with a growth mindset or perspective, a longer-term view.  Of course the club may not be run in that manner but when it does, it is genuinely exciting and more rewarding.  If not, I suggest following another sport until it comes to its senses.  What do we look for in such a perspective?  Progress. (The same perspective should be applied in anything you do, whether it's your family, job, or passions.  If all you do is pick at the things that aren't perfect, and fail to see and appreciate potential, growth and development, you will be miserable most of the time).

Anyways, you still want to pick apart a game because that's what fans do right?  What I saw in this latest game didn't convince me that we were better than in August.  Seems almost silly to even say it now, but how can we improve dramatically with the same set of players within a couple of weeks?  

But what really upset me was because we looked slow and lethargic, and well off the pace.  And worse, we looked intimidated.  Which is strange considering we won the last two games, and were playing in an empty Anfield. (Another life lesson - whatever you do, don't just mail it in, don't just show up.  Give it everything and if it's not enough, that's ok.  Respect your opponents but don't fear them.)  It seems to me also that whenever we play Luiz and don't have a good pressing game, it's easy for opposing strikers to drop between the lines - he does not follow because he's slow and afraid of getting caught.  So in this game, a half-hearted press also meant our shape was too stretched.  It was neither here nor there and players become tentative.  The passing was slow and uncertain and the lack of confidence quickly became contagious (Moral of the story - when you lead teams, always check back with them whether they understand the plan.  Their answers will tell you all you need to know.)

So why did the stats seem to suggest we were better than in August?  It was a nice coincidence to read this quote from Bergkamp today.

"Stats are another window into the game, but it is not the only way. I still think your eyes make the definite decision on certain things, and then the stats can help you - maybe to prove that you see it right."

The key lesson here is that stats cannot replicate the complexities of some things like football in making an assessment.  It is a tool, a supporting tool and nothing more.  It cannot be the starting point and that's another lesson.  Fundamentals are important.  Once you start off with the wrong premise on anything, it's very difficult to break out of the perspective because the limits of that perspective are informed by your starting premise/assumptions.

The use of stats in sports was revolutionalised in baseball as recounted in Moneyball, the book by one of my favourite authors Richard Lewis.  It worked for baseball because it is a largely static sport and you can dissect and distill all the key elements of the game into numbers.  Football is different because it is constant movement (except for rotational fouling heh) and stats can be very misleading.  So understanding a tool and how it is used, and in what circumstances is important. (Beware of simplistic explanations, and things that are too good to be true.  My mantra on this has always been - if it was that easy, everyone would be doing it.  Or maybe it is really that easy, but you can't apply it.  As it turns out, once everyone in baseball started doing similar things, the advantage was lost.  And you then have to start looking for the next edge.  Which you should be constantly doing anyway).

More importantly, given the pervasive use of data in almost all aspects of our lives, statistical literacy is something we all need to learn and get better at.

Anyway, football should give us joy beyond just winning and losing games. Joy can be found as I said in having longer-term perspectives, in being curious about the game.  I am still learning after all these years.  Maybe there is not so much joy when we lose, but we should still be grateful that we get to watch it.  After all, we lost it for a while.  I am happy it's back, and pray we will not have to wait too long before we are allowed back at stadiums.